Project Lift

Project Lift, a flagship initiative of the Canada Arizona Business Council (CABC), continues in 2026 to play a critical role in monitoring and advancing the relationship between air service, tourism, and long-term investment between Arizona and Canada. The initiative is grounded in a clear economic principle: air connectivity directly drives tourism flows, snowbird migration, business travel, and ultimately foreign direct investment into Arizona. Canadian visitors remain one of the state’s most valuable international segments, contributing approximately $2.4 billion annually to Arizona’s economy, including more than $1.4 billion from snowbirds alone. These long-duration visitors—often staying four months or more—represent a uniquely stable and high-impact economic base, contributing through real estate, taxes, healthcare spending, retail, and entertainment, yet they continue to be underrepresented in formal tourism strategies and airline planning models.

In 2025, broader political tensions and negative sentiment toward the U.S. administration contributed to a measurable softening in Canadian travel demand, with Arizona experiencing a decline in reported tourism activity and seasonal visitation. However, there is also a growing recognition that a portion of Canadian visitors continue to travel to Arizona without formally identifying within traditional tracking systems, suggesting actual visitation may be stronger than reported metrics indicate. The Canada Arizona Business Council views this shift as cyclical rather than structural, and as sentiment stabilizes moving into 2026 and 2027, early indicators point toward renewed confidence and recovery. It is also important to recognize that these sentiment dynamics have not been symmetrical; while reduced Canadian travel has impacted Arizona, northbound tourism from Arizona into Canada has also been affected, though Arizonans have not demonstrated the same level of emotional hesitation when traveling to Canada. This creates an opportunity to strengthen the bi-directional travel narrative, ensuring that Canadian destinations continue to be promoted in Arizona while rebuilding confidence among Canadian travelers heading south. This recovery is supported by strong underlying fundamentals, including deep economic ties, long-standing travel patterns, and Arizona’s continued strength as a premier winter destination.

At the same time, while air service between Canada and Arizona has continued to recover from pandemic-era disruptions, capacity has not yet fully aligned with the pace of economic demand or regional growth. Weekly nonstop flights remain below peak historical levels, particularly outside of Maricopa County, and this gap continues to create downstream impacts across tourism, business travel, and investment pipelines. More than 500 Canadian companies now operate in Arizona, a figure closely tied to the accessibility and reliability of direct air routes, reinforcing that tourism is not an isolated sector but rather the front end of a longer-term investment cycle that typically materializes five to ten years after initial market engagement.

Canadian travel behavior is also evolving, with the next generation of travelers demonstrating more dynamic, cost-conscious, and experience-driven preferences, often prioritizing visits to family, major urban destinations, or lower-cost international markets. This shift requires Arizona to modernize its tourism positioning while continuing to retain its core snowbird base. Airlines, in this context, must be viewed not simply as carriers but as essential economic infrastructure partners whose route decisions directly influence visitor volumes, capital flows, workforce mobility, and supply chain connectivity.

Looking ahead, the continued reshoring of North American manufacturing and the emergence of the Arizona–Sonora–Canada mega-region are expected to increase demand for both passenger travel and air cargo capacity, further strengthening the business case for expanded routes. However, long-term sustainability depends on a fully bi-directional strategy that ensures strong travel demand in both directions alongside optimized cargo utilization. A key component of this strategy is reinforcing a clear and consistent message to Canadians: whether visiting as tourists, seasonal residents, or as part of the more than 500 Canadian companies operating in the state, they are welcomed, valued, and safe in Arizona. Strengthening this message—through coordinated outreach, in-market engagement, and word-of-mouth amplification—will be critical, as Canadians who feel recognized and appreciated are more likely to return and to encourage friends, family, and business networks across Canada to do the same.

As sentiment continues to rebound and market conditions improve, the priority for 2026 and 2027 is clear: restoring and expanding air connectivity must be treated as an urgent economic development imperative. This includes exceeding pre-pandemic flight levels, formally integrating snowbirds into tourism and economic planning frameworks, aligning airline route development with broader state growth strategies, and strengthening coordinated marketing efforts on both sides of the border. Through Project Lift, the CABC will continue to provide data-driven leadership and collaboration across airlines, tourism authorities, and economic stakeholders, ensuring Arizona remains competitive, accessible, and well-positioned to capture the next wave of Canadian tourism, business travel, and long-term investment.